Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players,

Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores (EScores) for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators. Primary emergence indicators identify "frontier" terms based on their EScores. We then tally organizations, countries, or authors especially active in publishing (or patenting) on high EScore topics in a target R&D domain. We can score research fields on relative degree of emergence. This paper illustrates EScoring for Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data. The paper is part of a special TFSC issue on tech emergence.

Porter, A.L., Garner, J., Carley, S.F., and Newman, N.C. (2018), Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.016

 

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